Predicting the election just for fun

Thursday, June 5, 2008 at 19:25 | Posted in Election, Politics, USA | Leave a comment
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Johan Ingerö challenged a number of Swedish bloggers to post their early state by state predictions of the US presidential election. All the bloggers mentioned as well as Johan himself have a long record of covering American politics. I am not able to claim the same level of background knowledge but I thought it would be nice to enter my bid just for the fun of it.

This is a very initial prediction entered right after Obama collected the necessary amount of delegates for the nomination. I am more than likely to change my mind many times over, one of which is when we get to know about the running mates of Obama and McCain. Also, the prediction is based on just my guts saying that big surprises may happen due to exceptionally high turnout based on Obama’s stimulating effect on black voting.

I entered my prediction at uselectionatlas.org. For some reason the republican states are displayed in blue and democratic states in red in the map below. As the second image shows, I predict an Obama win by 341 electoral delegates to 197 for McCain. However, the confidence figures display only 259 delegates for Obama that I am pretty sure of. The 101 delegates from either way states may still tip the balance.

Clicking on the images brings you to my prediction page for for a full size view and more detailed numbers.

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