Which country will Russia swallow next?

Tuesday, August 12, 2008 at 4:42 | Posted in russia, war | 6 Comments
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As I briefly mentioned in a comment added to Kai’s post about cyber criminals, Georgia is in addition to the Rusian invasion of the country being exposed to a severe cyber attack orchestrated by the notorious cyber crime organisation Russian Business Network. Not to be mixed with the cyber criminals, Russian Business Network blog exploits the illegal activities of RBN with a comprehensive coverage. As the blog reported on Saturday, the web site of the Georgian Foreign Ministry and a number of other essential Georgian sites have been unaccessible and under unauthorized external control since late last Thursday.

The blog also warns that there may be a number of fake Georgian sites around the Internet that look like a Georgian government site but have no recent news updates. The Foreign Ministry are currently posting their updated info at http://georgiamfa.blogspot.com.

According to the latest information available, the Russian forces are in the process of invading Georgia and the Georgian army is withdrawing to defend the capital Tbilisi. The government is desperately asking for international assistance.

As a citizen of EU I am dismayed that the EU has failed to send a clear message to Moscow that attacking an independent country in order to oust its legally elected government is unacceptable. I am even more dismayed of this statement by the Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini:

“This war has pushed Georgia further away not just from Europe, but also complicates the NATO council in December,” Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini said in a newspaper interview published on Monday.

“Italy maintains that we cannot create an anti-Russia coalition in Europe, and on this point we are close to (Russian Prime Minister Vladimir) Putin’s position,” he told La Stampa.

While the Russian government appear to be doing all they can to make sure that such a coalition will be created, statements like that of Mr. Frattini’s are bound to turn things upside down. The Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt compared the Russian attack with Hitler’s argumetation for annexing the Czechoslovakian Sudetes before the World War II. Sad as it is, the World seems to be busy watching the mouth-gagged Olympics while another agressive annexation is taking place in the immediate naborhood of Europe.

The response of the EU, NATO and USA is remarkably similar to that of Neville Chamberlain after his meeting with Hitler in Munich in September 1938: “Peace for our time”. Peace my ass!

The cyber attacks against Estonia last year seem to have been a general rehearsal for what we are witnessing now. The extent and effect of the attack shows that it must have been planned for quite a while ahead. That also goes to the number of Russian troops rapidly deployed to Georgia: not even the Russian armed forces are able to spontaineously engage such a large number of troops so quickly without having intended to do so well in advance.

I would like to close with a quote of Kai’s latest post:

I hope that reactions will come. That the international community will raise it’s voice and tell Russia and Putin that theft is not acceptable. That Georgia will receive support and help on their path to independence and democracy.

I hope so, too, although it may be too little too late to help Georgia. But if reactions fail to come, we can only guess which independent country is going to be next in line to be swallowed. Is it Ukraine? Or perhaps Latvia, Estonia or Finland? All neighbors of Russia and with enough Russian citizens in their population to provide an excuse.

Edit: Official notices of the Georgian government are also being published on the web site of the President of Poland.



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  1. The situation looks pretty clear: Russia is in a mission of securing Southern Ossetia and Abkhazia after a savage attack by Tbilissi that killed 2000 civilians and nearly destroyed the Southern Ossetian capital. It seems the mission is quite limited. Some front posts of military importance like Gori and Sekani that lie slightly outside the enclaves may be temporarily occupied but it can be expected that Russia is not interested in any occupation at a larger scale. OTOH it is clear that it has to complete its mission and can not let itself be distracted by meaningless armistice calls before that. I hope I’m not proven wrong, but my impression is that this time Russia can be trusted more than the adventurists from Tbilissi, US, Israel, Orange revolution coutries (including Estonian militias!) who started this reckless operation in total lack of sense of international order. It’s sad that it has come so far. Russia has learned a lot. Their rhetorics and their basic military thinking sounds like a moderate version known from western models, whereas the US and its allies have somehow lost credibility as guaranators of international order. A nice example of this is the Russian rebuttal, completely credible, of the US allegation that Russia is aiming for “regime change”: “That is US terminology and US practise, not something Russia would do.”

  2. I thought we agreed in comments to my previous post yesterday that our understanding of facts is opposite and there is no room for fruitful discussion. Just for the record, though, I find your presentation bizarre and in contradiction of what I know to be the truth.

  3. You are saying Russia will swallow Georgia, I’m saying it won’t. You said yesterday that there is no room for fruitful discussion. It will however be interesting to see in a few days, when the dust has settled, whose assessment was right. If Russia in fact stayed within the boundaries of Abkhazia and Southern Ossetia and didn’t occupy Tbilissi, you may have to revise some of your “shameless remarks”. In the contrary case I will also feel sorry for what I wrote.

  4. If Russia is going to stop this aggression it would be because of diplomatic pressure. And no, I am not going to be provoked into an argument where it is to be seen clearly that we have no perspective to reach any common ground so you could just as well admit it and stop trying. I am not going around posting comments on pro Russian blogs. I find it extraordinary that you feel obliged to crusade in mine.

  5. I see now that Russia has already declared its end to the hostilities. The move matches what was to be expected if you followed the statements of the Russian side. Diplomatic pressure is not needed to achieve this. It reflects a kind of basic wisdom or a grown-up politician that G. Bush senior also showed when he refrained from occupying Bagdad. I don’t feel I’m crusading. When I find a clear lack of objectivity on a website, also on mein-parteibuch.com which has been excessively pro-russian in this conflict, I just shortly point it out.

  6. ps i means “of a grown-up politician” not “or”.

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